Rapport de Bertelsmann sur le Maroc

Le Bertelsmann Transformation Index a fait un classement sur des différents pays sur différents index (Démocratie, Marché). Le rapport sur le Maroc en anglais est téléchargeable ici et est en lecture en ligne sur cette page. La conclusion du rapport est  très critique:

The persistence of Moroccan authoritarianism is the result of two sets of reasons, one internal and one external. The monarchy maintains its dominance of the political landscape because other political actors perceived it as the cornerstone of the Moroccan political equilibrium. More precisely, each actor believes that it would lose out if this equilibrium were upset, thus creating a quasi-consensus on the necessity of an authoritarian monarchy. Some among the westernized elites and upper middle class accept the idea that an electoral process devoid of manipulations (gerrymandering, etc.) combined with a constitutionally empowered parliament would be dangerous, because it would allow the Islamists to capture the state and maybe renege on democracy. The Islamists fear that anxiety among the secular elites in Morocco and the West provoked by excessive weakening of the monarchy might lead to a military coup led by a staunch secular military strongman and supported by the secular elites and the West, which would ruthlessly clamp down on them. In the eyes of Islamists, the monarchy at least preserves the centrality of a socially conservative type of Islam, Malekism. The external reasons for persistence of Moroccan authoritarianism mirror the Moroccan secular elite’s argument favoring the current monarchy. Western interests are better served with a non-democratic, but compliant and even fairly socially liberal regime. This equilibrium unravels when economic, social and political tensions reach an unbearable point. Any transformation of political power in Morocco would contain the danger that all current actors might get wiped out by an unforeseen emerging new actor. Radical Islamists are just one possible scenario, a military coup followed by a repressive junta regime is another – not to speak of the outbreak of destructive anarchy.

There are signs, however, that Morocco’s political equilibrium is increasingly unstable. Moroccan citizens do not voice their demands through classical social intermediaries like political parties, unions and well-established NGOs, but spontaneously organize demonstrations or riots. The low turnout in the 2007 legislative elections is a glaring indication of the population’s withdrawal from democratic participation, which increasingly undermines the main political players and weakens the state itself. While the economy improved on the whole between 2007 and 2009, the level of social contestation indicates rapidly rising discontent and a growing sense of inequality among sizeable portions of the population. The least costly escape from the de-politicization trap would be the monarchy’s embrace and promotion of democratic ideals. This is unlikely to happen. The power elite in Morocco remains attached to the convenient economy first paradigm. The monarchy has benefited from the relative quietism of the two main poles of Moroccan politics. If these two poles, the Islamists and the progressive left, decided to adopt a more confrontational tone in their demands for constitutional reform, more freedom of expression and the press, as well as less nepotism in the economic sector, the monarchy’s reformist image will be hard to sustain. International actors might also become less oblivious to the regime’s democratic failures.

Hat Tip : Omar El Hyani

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